class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Dirty Wars ## Targeted Killings ### Jack McDonald --- class: inverse # Pre-Lecture Discussion .pull-left[![Qassem Soleimani, Tasnim News Agency, licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License](../img/2020/soleimani.jpg) Major General Qassem Soleimani, killed 3/1/2020 in Iraq by a US drone ] .pull-right[ Consider your initial answer to this question: .large[What is your opinion about the strike that killed Qasem Soleimani?] - How can this be evaluated? - How _should_ this be evaluated? ] ??? .question[ ] --- class: inverse # Outline Disagreements about the "proper" name for targeted killings reflect deeper disagreements about what they are, and what they are intended to do The justifications for targeted killings matter, and as much as some people don't like it, are creating standards of conduct in real time Targeted killings demonstrate that asymmetric, hostile, acts of violence are the building block of war (and repression) The problems we see at the institutional level highlight the problem of observation and knowledge creation in war, and the study of war ??? --- class: inverse # Part 1: Targeted Killings - What's In a Name? ??? --- # What is a Targeted Killing, Anyway? .left-33[ - Political murder - Discriminate violence in war - A means of disrupting/defeating clandestine networks - Selective self-defence - Extrajuidicial killings and human rights violations ] .right-33[ ![A whole lotta images](../img/11/tkcentre.png) ] ??? --- # Do They Work? .medium[ - Steven R. David, _Fatal Choices_ (2002) - They don’t work, but are "effective, however, in providing retribution and revenge for a population under siege and may, over the long term, help create conditions for a more secure Israel." - Audrey Cronin, _Ending Terrorism_ (2008) - They can work, but relationship between decapitation and demise isn’t straightforward - Daniel Byman, _A High Price_ (2011) - "Scraping the barrel" - Bryan C. Price, _Targeting Top Terrorists_ (2012) - HVT killings significantly increase mortality rate of terrorist groups - Johnston & Sarbahi, _The Impact of U.S. Drone Strikes on Terrorism in Pakistan_ (2015) - "drone strikes, while unpopular, have bolstered U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Pakistan" - Gill, Piazza & Horgan, _Counterterrorism Killings and Provisional IRA Bombings, 1970–1998_ (2018) - "while killings committed by British counterterrorism forces are easily measurable because of the publicity they created, other counterterrorism efforts were also likely to impact upon PIRA’s ability to engage in sustained IED attacks yet receive little public acknowledgment." ] ??? --- # Decapitation, Disruption, or Something Else? .medium[ > Cases where a group has halted a campaign following the killing of the leader are difficult to find, and those examined here do not support the conclusion that assassination ends terrorism. Audrey Cronin, _How Terrorism Ends_ > The number of skilled terrorists is often quite limited... If these generators of terror can be eliminated through arrests or killings, the organization as a whole is disrupted. Daniel Byman, _A High Price_ > For many, industrial metaphors were more appropriate to the relentless process of changing shifts, nightly raids and ceaseless target development work... McChrystal himself often described his whole setup in Iraq as 'the machine'. Mark Urban, _Task Force Black_ ] --- # But... > ...it is increasingly clear that many consequences of counterterrorism policies cause harm to other national and societal interests, however unintended these secondary effects may be. Martha Crenshaw, _Terrorism Research: The Record_ > ...the measurement of effectiveness requires set criteria, which presupposes a common normative standard. For example, it is necessary to agree on the purpose of counterinsurgency: is it regime survival at any cost, or do we engage in these contests to serve higher purposes and ideals? Democratic statecraft is oriented toward an open political opportunity structure for its people, and the actions of the state are judged by this standard. David Ucko, _'The People are Revolting': An Anatomy of Authoritarian Counterinsurgency_ ??? --- class: inverse # Small Group Discussion .question[ Is killing someone with a drone inherently unfair? Does that matter? ] ??? --- class: inverse # Part 2: Okay, So What's the Problem? ??? --- # Problem 1: Lots of People Are Dead, Is That Okay? .left-column[ ![Baitullah Mehsud](../img/11/mehsud.png) ![Rorschach Test](../img/11/rorschach.jpg) ![Arclight](../img/11/precision.png) ] .right-column[ > After the dust cloud dissipated, all that remained of Mehsud was a detached torso. Eleven others died: his wife, his father-in-law, his mother-in-law, a lieutenant, and seven bodyguards. Jane Mayer, _The Predator Drone War_ - The problem of measuring judgments - The problem of measuring precision - The problem of measuring effects Are what states say about targeted killings justifications or excuses? Do these statements explain internal logics, or conceal them? ] ??? --- # Justifying Targeted Killings .pull-left[ .small[ ## Armed Conflict IAC, NIAC... Transnational armed conflict? At what point is a country or polity at war? How do we define the spatial and temporal limitations and boundaries of war? Who counts as a participant? Is it possible to draw a sharp line between war and peace? > The rules of war define war itself, and... arguments over the applicability or non-applicability of these rules are central to understanding the constitution of war in our world. Jack McDonald, _Enemies Known and Unknown_ ] ] .pull-right[ .small[ ## Self Defence Personal level - "Law enforcement" - Loughgall, 1987; Gibraltar, 1988 (Operation Flavius) - Armed conflict State Level - Individual - Collective Issues: Thresholds, anticipation/preemption, proportionality > a necessity of self-defense, instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation "Caroline Test" ] ] ??? --- # I Have Written About This Before... .left-column[ .pic80[ ![Ethics cover](../img/11/ethicsvwide.png) ![Ethics cover](../img/11/enemiesvwide.jpg) ] ] .right-column[ .medium[ Utility is central to the legal, ethical and political justification of targeted killings - ...and utility is in the eye of the beholder - The justifications used by the Obama administration don't cover the use of signature strikes by the CIA, but do cover like activity by the DOD American interpretations of international law are integral to its strategic culture - American use of force is guided by its own perception of what is, and is not, lawful under international law - Law creates strong pressures for selectivity, but not necessarily for strategic restraint - It's not about the drones, it's about the creation of stable intelligence/responsibility sharing between institutions with very different attitudes towards violence ] ] ??? --- # Problem 2: How International Law Works .left-column[ If a state can lawfully kill someone anywhere because of "armed conflict", where can't they kill? If a state can lawfully kill a single person in self-defence, who can't it kill? ] .right-column[ ![Self defence](../img/2021/self-defence-2.jpg) ] ??? --- # Self Defence Since 9/11 .pull-left[ ## UN Charter Article 2(4): "All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state" Article 51: Inherent right to individual/collective self defence vs armed attack ] .pull-right[ "Armed attack" is narrower than "use of force" Afghanistan: Can a terrorist group commit an armed attack? Iraq, 2003: Is pre-emptive self defence okay? Targeted killings: What are the limits of extraterritorial self defence? Syria (etc): Do you have a right to self defence in order to protect partners? ] ??? --- # The American Tradition 1837: British forces sink the _Caroline_, used by Canadian rebels based in US Late 19th Century: Destruction of Native American independence, Cross border raids and counter raids 1916: Villa Raid into Mexico after Pancho Villa ICJ Cases: Oil Platforms (Iran), Military and Paramilitary Activities (Nicaragua) Post-9/11: Self-defence targeted killings, collective self defence of partnered forces in Iraq, Syria, etc TLDR - Self defence gets messy when you have far flung territorial possessions, allies, proxies, and modern means of warfare ??? --- # Anticipation and Preemption .left-column[ 2005 Chatham House Principles 2012 Bethlehem Principles 2017 UK AG Speech ] .right-column[ .medium[ > Sir Daniel’s proposed list of factors was not exhaustive, but included (at Principle 8), the following: > > (a) The nature and immediacy of the threat; (b) The probability of an attack; (c) Whether the anticipated attack is part of a concerted pattern of continuing armed activity; (d) The likely scale of the attack and the injury, loss or damage likely to result therefrom in the absence of mitigating action; and (e) The likelihood that there will be other opportunities to undertake effective action in self-defense that may be expected to cause less serious collateral injury, loss or damage. > > It is my view, and that of the UK Government, that these are the right factors to consider in asking whether or not an armed attack by non-state actors is imminent and the UK Government follows and endorses that approach. Jeremy Wright, _Attorney General’s speech at the International Institute for Strategic Studies_ ] ] ??? --- class: inverse # Small Group Discussion .question[ Is there anything fundamentally different about the forms of killing found in "dirty wars"? ] ??? --- class: inverse # Part 3: Targeted Killings and Institutions ??? --- # Signature Strikes and Knowledge Problems .pull-left[ .medium[ Selective violence is a key element of most civil wars, terrorism campaigns, and insurgencies, identity standards vary between armed conflict and self defence Standards of targeting and verification differ between institutions and states Fundamental information asymmetry between those on the ground, and the organisations through which states can use force Fundamentally, it's the political and infrastructural partnerships that are important with drones (etc) ] ] .pull-right[ .medium[ > The [2002] attack at Zawhar Kili is the first known example of what has come to be called a ‘signature strike’ - a drone attack that targets ‘groups of men who bear certain signatures, or defining characteristics associated with terrorist activity, but whose identities aren’t known’. The vast majority of drone strikes conducted by the CIA have been signature strikes, not ‘personality strikes’ - those in which the CIA has a ‘high degree of confidence’ that it knows the precise identity of the target. Kevin Jon Heller, _One Hell of a Killing Machine_ ] ] ??? --- # Political Problems ![Image spread](../img/11/identity.png) The primary problem is war powers, the secondary problem is state responsibility and complicity ??? --- # Information and Institutional Problems .pull-left[ > Democracies do not make war on the basis of legal memos locked in a D.O.J. safe. General Michael Hayden, Retd. - Interoperability - Intelligence Sharing - Infrastructure - Policy and Politics ] .pull-right[ ![Hayden pic](../img/11/hayden.png) ] ??? --- # \*Cough\* Buy My Books \*Cough\* .left-column[ ![A whole lotta images](../img/11/mybooksquare.png) ![Hayden pic](../img/11/chathamhousebox.png) ] .right-column[ .medium[ Jack McDonald, “Remote Warfare and the Legitimacy of Military Capabilities.” _Defence Studies_, Vol. 21, no. 4, 2021. pp:528-544, DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2021.1902315 Jack McDonald, “Decapitation, Repression, or Cauterisation? The problem of categorising targeted strikes.” In Jones, David Martin, Schulte, Paul, Ungerer, Carl, Smith, M.L.R., Eds. _Handbook of Terrorism and Counter Terrorism Post 9/11_, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2019. Jack McDonald, _Drones and the European Union: Prospects for a Common Future_, Chatham House, 2018. Jack McDonald, _Enemies Known and Unknown: Targeted Killings in America’s Transnational War_, Hurst & Co./OUP, 2017. Jack McDonald, _Ethics, Law and Justifying Targeted Killings: The Obama Administration at War_, Routledge, 2016. ] ]