class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # War and Warfare Bootcamp ## Defence and the Integrated Review ### Jack McDonald --- # The Problem -- .pull-left[ ![Underpants gnome](../img/2021/problem-set.jpg) ] -- .pull-right[ > How does war work? > What the f--- is a division? Why does one matter? > What just happened in... > > - Afghanistan > - Azerbaijan/Armenia > - Yemen > - Ethiopia/Tigray > - etc etc... ] ??? --- # Option 1: Solving the Problem by Reading Books .pull-left[ .medium[ You read the following books: - _Understanding Modern Warfare_, by David Jordan et al - _Waging War_, by Wayne E. Lee - _The Evolution of Strategy_, by Beatrice Heuser - _The Allure of Battle_, by Cathal J. Nolan - _Military Power_, by Stephen Biddle - _Strategy and Defence Planning_, by Colin Gray - _War and Technology_, by Martin van Creveld - _Supplying War_, by Martin van Creveld - _The Sources of Military Doctrine_, by Barry R. Posen - _A History of Military Thought_, by Azar Gat ] ] .pull-right[ .medium[ - _A Study of War, 1st ed_, by Quincy Wright - _Battle_, by John A. Lynn - _America's Dirty Wars_, by Russell Crandall - _The Soldier and the State_, by Samuel P. Huntington - _The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy_ 4th ed., by Lawrence Freedman and Jeffrey Michels - _Technology and the American Way of War Since 1945_, by Thomas G. Mahnken - _Winning the Next War_, by Stephen P. Rosen - _Adaptation Under Fire_, by David Barno and Nora Bensahel - _On Tactics_, B.A. Friedman - _Military Strategy_, J.C. Wylie ] ] ??? --- # Option 2: Bootstrap It .pull-left[ The previous list will give you a relatively complete understanding of how/why war works in both theoretical terms, and across history/cultures/etc You don't have the time to read all of that right now, I don't have the time to teach it So, we talk about contemporary UK defence stuff, read some documents, and I teach you what you need to get started ] .pull-right[ .medium[ **Session 1: Defence and the Integrated Review** - Integrated Review **Session 2: Defence Organisation** - Defence Command Paper - Future Soldier **Session 3: Military Power and Warfare** - Military Power - Military Doctrine - Domains of Warfare: Land/Sea/Air and Space/Electromagnetic/Cyber - Campaign Study - Battle Study ] ] ??? --- # Logic of the Course .left-33[ ![Adam driver meme](../img/2021/adam-driver.jpg) ] .right-33[ "Security Studies, Peace Studies, Defence Studies" Key premise: > Understand the trade-offs, understand war/warfare Rather than try to understand everything, we figure out what we need to know to understand a coherent set of choices about the structure of military forces in a specific setting This gives you the set of tools you need to generalise/read up on different cases ] ??? --- class: inverse # Defence Policy and the Integrated Review ??? --- # Goal: Understand The Integrated Review .left-33[ ![Integrated Review Cover](../img/2021/ir-cover.jpg) ] .right-33[ Published March 16, 2021 Overarching document (primary source) for UK strategy, national security, foreign policy Guides subsequent choices about defence strategy/investment, so affects the structure of military forces in the UK - Defence Command paper, _Defence in a Competitive Age_, March 22, 2021 - Army restructuring, _Future Soldier_, 25 November, 2021 ] ??? --- # "Cash Rules Everything Around Me" .pull-left[ ![Budget 2021 Spending](../img/2021/budget-2021.jpg) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2021-documents ] .pull-right[ War from the bottom up: What are the tactical problems that I need to solve? War from the top down: What are the strategic challenges that I need military capabilities to face? War from the Treasury: Why should I give you money for X instead of spending it on Y? Bottom line: Any war is the product of the resources dedicated to generating and maintaining military capabilities prior to, and during, the conflict ] ??? --- # Background: UK Defence Since the Cold War .pull-left[ .medium[ - Northern Ireland (-1997) - Gulf War (1990-1991) - UNPROFOR/Bosnia (1992-1995) - Desert Fox (1998) - Kosovo (1998-1999) - Sierra Leone (2000-2002) - Afghanistan (2001-2021) - Iraq (2003-2009) - Libya (2011) - Coalition vs ISIS (2014-Present) ] Also lots of peacekeeping (South Sudan, Mali), training, advice, support, etc ] .pull-right[ ![UK Defence Spending](../img/2021/uk-defence-spending.jpg) https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8175/ ] ??? --- # Background: Declining Headcount and Transformation .left-40[ ![UK Defence Headcount](../img/2021/defence-headcount.jpg) ![UK Defence Headcount](../img/2021/dca-headcount.jpg) ] .right-40[ - _Options for Change (1990)_ - _The Defence Costs Study (1994)_ - _Strategic Defence Review (1998)_ - _SDR New Chapter (2002)_ - _Defence White Paper (2003/4)_ - _Strategic Defence and Security Review (2010)_ - _The 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review (2015)_ - _The Integrated Review (2021_) .small[ https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7930/ https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7313/ ] ] ??? --- # British Army: A Comparison .left-40[ .medium[ 1989: 155,500 troops - 1290 Main battle tanks - 271 Light tanks - 200 Infantry fighting vehicles - 990 Recce vehicles - 3437 Armoured personnel carriers - 1100 Artillery pieces 2020: 83,500 troops, 27,450 reservists - 227 Main battle tanks - 617 Recce vehicles - 388 Infantry fighting vehicles - 812 Armoured personnel carriers - 598 Artillery pieces ] ] .right-40[ ![BOAR ORBAT, 1989](../img/2021/boar-orbat-1989.png) ![UK Future Soldier ORBAT, 2021](../img/2021/uk-future-soldier-orbat-2021.jpg) ] ??? --- # The Integrated Review .left-33[ ![Integrated Review Cover](../img/2021/ir-cover.jpg) ] .right-33[ Command paper = government policy document presented to Parliament Terms are important - Global Britain - Competitive age - Security, Defence, Development, Foreign Policy Vision to 2030, plans to 2025, funded to 2025 by the Spending Review 2020 If you want to understand UK defence priorities, it has to be understood in context ] ??? --- # Reading the IR .left-column[ ![Integrated Review Contents](../img/2021/ir-contents-2021.jpg) ] .right-column[ .medium[ Foreword: The political bit, important for connecting to Conservative policy Overview: Executive summary of IR, for civil servants with no spare time The National Security/International Environment to 2030: Important set of assumptions backing up the whole IR Strategic Framework: The heart of the IR - what the priorities are, what the UK will do 1. Sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology 1. Shaping the open international order of the future 1. Strengthening security and defence at home and overseas 1. Building resilience at home and overseas Implementing the IR: Nuts and bolts for the civil service implementation Annex A: What money is available for all the above ] ] ??? --- # Reading Between the Lines (My opinion) The UK is now best characterised as a middle power The UK has exited the EU, and is now looking for a direction to take The UK was the bridge between the US and the EU, and now has to work harder to maintain existing relationships Triad of US/EU/China competition is a big problem for the UK The UK's economy has taken a hammering (2008 crash, austerity, Brexit, Covid-19) so it can no longer fund a big military and buy all the kit that the military thinks it needs to fight in the future ??? --- # The Heart of the Integrated Review Everything is about trade-offs: what is important enough to be funded, what is not important enough to be funded. The IR topics exist within the broader scheme of government policy priorities. So, from a defence perspective: - How important is defence, relative to other priorities in the IR? - What are the specific priorities that defence can contribute to, or lead on, in the IR? - What kinds of capability does defence need to maintain or develop to maximise its benefit to the UK? What kinds of capability does it need to cut? Answers to the above will shape funding for defence, and has knock on effects for defence organisation, and therefore the kinds of things that the UK's military can do in future ??? --- # Logic of the Integrated Review > At the heart of the Integrated Review is an increased commitment to security and resilience, so that the British people are protected against threats. This starts at home, by defending our people, territory, critical national infrastructure (CNI), democratic institutions and way of life – and by reducing our vulnerability to the threat from states, terrorism and serious and organised crime (SOC). (p.11) 1. The UK benefits from the current international order 1. The international order is changing due to challenge by revisionist actors 1. The UK needs to work with partners to ensure that its future environment is conducive to the flourishing of democracies like the UK 1. While it is doing this, the UK needs to ensure that it can compete and grow in economic terms ??? --- # Section 3: What the World Looks Like .pull-left[ .small[ 1) Geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts: moving towards a multipolar world - China as a systemic competitor - Shifts in the global balance of economic power - Geopolitical importance of middle powers 2) Systemic competition - Competition between political systems - Competition to shape the international order - Competition across multiple spheres - A deteriorating security environment - Growing conflict and instability - Cyberspace - Space 3) Rapid Technological change - A rapidly changing landscape - S&T as an arena of systemic competition ] ] .pull-right[ 1. Geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts: moving towards a multipolar world 1. Systemic competition 1. Rapid Technological change 1. Transnational challenges What are your best choices in this environment? What kind of military capabilities do you need in this environment? ] ??? --- # The Strategic Framework .left-33[ 1. Sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology 1. Shaping the open international order of the future 1. Strengthening security and defence at home and overseas 1. Building resilience at home and overseas ] .right-33[ .medium[ 1: Grow the UK's S&T power in pursuit of strategic advantage, cement position as responsible cyber power | Economic growth, promote science and technology research, modernise the military, promote cyber ecosystem 2: Support open societies, shape open global economy, shape international order | Notably cyberspace, open internet, space 3: Counter state threats at home and overseas, tackle conflict and instability, tackle transnational challenges | Defend territory, deter via collective security, improve interoperability, modernise armed forces, manage/de-escalate multi-domain crisis, sustain commitment to collective security beyond the Euro-Atlantic, maintain nuclear deterrent 4: Build national resilience, tackle climate change and biodiversity loss, build health resilience home/intl ] ] ??? --- # Defence and the Indo-Pacific Tilt .left-33[ ![Nine Dash Line, Public domain](../img/2021/nine-dash-line.png) ] .right-33[ IR views it as important for the UK to build partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region > To use our armed forces to detect, understand and deter state threats below the threshold of war through persistent engagement overseas Defend territory, deter via collective security (NATO), improve interoperability, modernise armed forces, manage/de-escalate multi-domain crisis, sustain commitment to collective security beyond the Euro-Atlantic, maintain nuclear deterrent Balancing major commitments and presence: Atlantic/Europe, Middle East, Indo-Pacific ] ??? --- # Implications for Defence .pull-left[ Inter-service: Navy wins, RAF neutral, Army loses Can't afford single-nation capability, need joint military capabilities Army force structure needs to be able to contribute to a wide range of operations, so needs to reduce conventional warfighting capability Where are you going to base troops? What kinds of equipment programmes are now redundant? ] -- .pull-right[ **Major Scenarios:** - Sub-threshold conflict in South China Sea - Invasion of Taiwan - Conflict on Korean peninsula **Also:** - Conventional or sub-threshold conflict with Russia in Europe - Conflict in Middle East - Syrian civil war - KSA/Iran proxy conflict - India/China, India/Pakistan ] ???