Looks Interesting: May 2020

I am attempting to keep track of all the articles I come across that look interesting, that I’ll probably never read, but might read more of them if I keep track of them.

The absence of great power responsibility in global environmental politics

By Steven Bernstein in European Journal of International Relations

IR theory across traditions has been too accepting of a presumed link between great power responsibilities and special rights. Unlike traditional security issues, for example, special rights and responsibilities may be less important for many major environmental problems such as climate change. While some areas of environmental protection may look like classic global management and collective action problems (e.g. ozone depletion or declining high seas, or straddling, fish stocks), others are much more about societal transformation where multilevel change and wider ranges of actors are equally as important.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1354066119859642

No substitute for victory? Why just war theorists can’t win

By Cian O’Driscoll in European Journal of International Relations

all wars, even just ones, always leave some loose ends, rough edges, and unhappy outcomes behind them—a reminder and remainder of the fact that approaching war as an instrument of justice is by its very nature a case of trying to squeeze square pegs into round holes. Just war may forestall the worst from coming to pass, but it does not make the world a better place. It is not a force for good in the world, nor a solution to its ills. Rather, it is a symptom of them. It cannot resolve the problems international society confronts today. The best it can do is defer, allay, or contain them. Even then, this can only be achieved by perpetuating those problems or producing others in their place. This is what one finds out about just war, I wish to suggest, when one investigates it via the prism of victory.

DOI: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354066119864706

Technological Wonder and Strategic Vulnerability: Satellite Reconnaissance and American National Security during the Cold War

By Aaron Bateman in International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence

The development of satellite reconnaissance during the Cold War represented an unprecedented degree of integration between technology and U.S. national security. During this period, technology evolved from a tool of statecraft to an irreplaceable component of America’s national security strategy. Each Cold War president beginning with Eisenhower recognized that the space reconnaissance program was the foundation of America’s ability to prevent a surprise attack.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2019.1703926

Ceasefires as violent state-building: local truce and reconciliation agreements in the Syrian civil war

By Marika Sosnowski in Conflict, Security & Development

By the usual measure of a ceasefire, local truce and reconciliation agreements in Syria would be considered successful in that they stopped violence. However, the reality is that these local ceasefire agreements are themselves highly violent. As such, broadening our understanding of ceasefires as being a form of violent state-building brings an additional, so far under-researched dimension to how ceasefires can have ramifications far beyond those usually considered. Additionally, the case studies from the Syrian civil war bring to light the relationship at play between the state, property and citizenship rights and how these types of ceasefires have been used by the state to forcibly assert its authority.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14678802.2019.1679561

Pillars not Principles: The Status of Humanity and Military Necessity in the Law of Armed Conflict

By Elliot Winter in Journal of Conflict and Security Law

the status of principle belongs only to distinction, proportionality and the prohibition on unnecessary suffering and so an alternative descriptor must be found for humanity and military necessity. The term ‘pillar’ fits the bill. It gives a sense of how fundamental these concepts are to the structure of the regime—with its full panoply of principles and rules resting on the foundation they provide—while not going so far as to hold them out as positive concepts that are capable, in themselves, of resolving specific scenarios.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jcsl/kraa001

Insufficient Knowledge in Kunduz: The Precautionary Principle and International Humanitarian Law

By Emma J Marchant in Journal of Conflict and Security Law

The targeting protocols applied by forces during armed conflict are some of the most secretive documents held by any military. However, their role in applying principles of international humanitarian law (IHL) means that they are key to understanding their development. This piece is primarily concerned with practical and operational application of the precautionary principle under IHL; how much knowledge is sufficient to carry out an attack lawfully during modern armed conflict. In order to establish if a standard has developed with the increase in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology, this piece uses the framework of an investigation into an incident in Kunduz, Afghanistan in 2009.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jcsl/krz033

Lex Innocentium (697 AD): Adomnán of Iona – father of Western jus in bello

By James W. Houlihan in International Review of the Red Cross

Interesting look at an early cleric who promulgated Lex Innocentium, that proscribed “the killing and injuring of non-arms-bearing people”

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1816383120000089

Explaining Population Displacement Strategies in Civil Wars: A Cross-National Analysis

By Adam G. Lichtenheld in International Organization

New dataset on strategic displacement of civilians in civil conflicts.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818320000089

Greater Goods: Morality and Attitudes toward the Use of Nuclear Weapons

By Brian C. Rathbun and Rachel Stein in Journal of Conflict Resolution

This article argues that framing this latest iteration of the debate as a contest between the logic of consequences and the logic of appropriateness obscures the role played by ethical considerations in forming foreign policy attitudes, a mistake that is common in the field of international relations more generally.

The presumption that egoistic behavior cannot be moral is based on an impoverished understanding of the diversity of human morality, one common in the field. Morality is typically defined in a “liberal” way, in which ethical action is that which does not harm others. However, morality can also be nonliberal as demonstrated by the moral foundations research program, which has shown that many people think about morality in terms of the “binding foundations” of deference to authority, loyalty to the in-group, and the maintenance of purity.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022002719879994

The Corporate Keepers of International Law

By Jay Butler in American Journal of International Law

In transborder environmental protection, territorial disputes, internet governance, anticorruption, international human rights, and humanitarian law, private businesses are increasingly supporting the implementation and enforcement of international law. This Article analyzes the various ways that corporate decision making contributes to this phenomenon, and assesses its prospects for enhancing international law’s existing enforcement paradigms. In doing so, the Article opens new ground for scholarly and policy consideration of the proper role of corporations in the global legal order.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/ajil.2020.1

Authoritarian International Law?

By Tom Ginsburg in American Journal of International Law

At the same time, as global power shifts toward authoritarian countries, this Article has argued that the shift away from liberal international law will not stop with a “return” to traditional Westphalian principles. Instead, I have speculated that authoritarian states will play an increasingly important role in articulating norms that will both insulate them from external pressures to liberalize, and also to consolidate internal control through cross-border cooperation. Authoritarians learn and repurpose institutions toward their own ends, and international law is no exception. The examples of diluting democratic norms, undermining democratic opposition through cyberlaw regulation, and naming new phenomena such as extremism are all evidence of a trajectory of authoritarian international law that may deepen should current governance trends continue.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/ajil.2020.3

__Jomini versus Clausewitz: Hamley’s Operations of War and Military Thought in the British Army, 1866–1933 __

By Adam Dighton in War in History

Neat insight into intellectual history of the British Army.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0968344518784775

United States defence contractors and the future of military operations

By Charles W. Mahoney in Defense & Security Analysis

Many analysts predict that cyber-operations, autonomous weapons systems, artificial intelligence, and clandestine special forces operations will be central features in future conflicts. Although often overlooked by scholars and policy analysts, defence contractors are integral to the development and implementation of these emerging categories of warfare. This inquiry examines the evolving nature of the American defence industry and the roles corporations play in current theatres of conflict. Surprisingly, rather than becoming less reliant on defence contractors after their much-maligned performance in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, American military and intelligence agencies have become more dependent on the private sector as technology becomes increasingly central to warfare.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2020.1750182

Layering and the foundations of the modern American surveillance state, 1970-2020

By Adam M. McMahon in Intelligence and National Security

The U.S. Congress established the foundation of today’s surveillance state nearly a half century ago as it sought to regulate and prevent criminal activity: the Banking Secrecy Act to target tax evasion by individuals and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to create oversight of wiretapping activities by law enforcement. Over time, additional functions were layered onto the existing institutional infrastructure, such as combating illicit drugs. September 11th, 2001 served as a critical juncture, reorienting the regime yet again to support the counter terror mission, despite persistent inefficiency and simultaneous risks to the civil liberties of Americans.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2020.1757837

Delegating strategic decision-making to machines: Dr. Strangelove Redux?

By James Johnson in Journal of Strategic Studies

AI-enabled decision support tools, by substituting the role of human critical thinking, empathy, creativity, and intuition in the strategic decision-making process, will be fundamentally destabilizing if defense planners come to view AI’s ‘support’ function as a panacea for the cognitive fallibilities and human analysis and decision-making. The article also considers the nefarious use of AI-enhanced fake news, deepfakes, bots, and other forms of social media by non-state actors and state proxy actors, which might cause states to exaggerate a threat from ambiguous or manipulated information, increasing instability.

DOI: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390.2020.1759038

“Old” and “New” Mass Killing? Genocide and Politicide Occurrence and Severity during and after the Cold War

By Petra Hendrickson in Terrorism and Political Violence

while genocide/politicide is less common after the Cold War ended, whether the severity of genocide/politicide differs systematically after the Cold War depends on when the Cold War is interpreted as having ended.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2020.1745776

From Samurais to Borgs: Reflections on the Importance of Intelligence Ethics

By Robert Frisk and Linda Johansson in International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence

Pop culture meets intelligence ethics in the form of Vulcan, Borg, Klingon strategies…

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2020.1734768

Sensemaking for 21st century intelligence

By David T. Moore, Elizabeth Moore, Seth Cantey & Robert R. Hoffman in Journal of Intelligence History

Interesting piece involving abduction and creation of organisational frames.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746143

From circumspection to centrality: prime ministers and the growth of analysis, co-ordination, management in the UK intelligence community

By Richard J. Aldrich & Rory Cormac in Journal of Intelligence History

We argue that British intelligence was transformed during the eleven years that Winston Churchill and Clement Attlee were in power. This change focused on the relationship between intelligence and Downing Street. Previous premiers were uninterested, naïve and inexperienced in their approach. When Churchill took office all this changed since he not only harnessed the power of intelligence but also oversaw the development of a central brain in the form of the joint assessment machinery. Yet it required Clement Attlee, with a rather different personality from Churchill, to complete the revolution. Together they not only developed the machinery used by successive prime ministers, they also trained Eden, Macmillan, and Douglas-Home in the transformative power of intelligence – changing the nature of the core executive in the process. Nevertheless, intelligence under each new administration increasingly reflects the character of the premier.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2020.1751512

Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data” and Machine Learning

By Robert A. Blair and Nicholas Sambanis in Journal of Conflict Resolution

Do you need theory to accurately forecast the onset of armed conflict?

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022002720918923

Governance and Accountable Citizenship Through Identification Infrastructures: Database Politics of Copernicus (France) and National Register of Citizens (India)

By Éric Dagiral and Khetrimayum Monish Singh in Science, Technology and Society

this article discusses two national databases in France (tax administration) and India (citizenship), respectively, as examples of contemporary state practices around digital identification infrastructures as a form of database politics to enforce accountable forms of citizen practices through which different forms of data driven institutional and sociotechnical processes are marking new changes in the state–citizen relationship, both in France and in India.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0971721820912895